As President Joe Biden's campaign insists he will remain the Democratic presidential candidate, pressure for him to withdraw due to concerns about his age and abilities remains strong.
Experts say Biden would likely have an outsized influence on the selection of his replacement and many are pointing to Vice President Kamala Harris as the most likely. The question remains: Who would replace Harris as the vice-presidential candidate?
No fewer than a dozen options have been floated by various pundits, journalists, political scientists and likely voters.
Daniel Cassino, a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University and the executive director of FDU Poll, said there are three basic strategies for selecting a vice president: pick a politician from a critical swing state, pick someone who balances out the presidential candidate in terms of demographics, region and ideology, or pick a candidate who magnifies the characteristics of the presidential candidate, as former President Donald Trump did with his selection of U.S. Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio.
When it comes to the most common strategy, the balancing strategy, Harris could pick someone older and more liberal, such as U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Cassino said. Warren, a Rutgers Law School graduate, was for a brief spell the front-running candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.
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If the party wants to double down on Harris with a younger and more moderate Democrat, Cassino mentioned a few relatively well-known personalities. Julián Castro, the secretary of housing and urban development under former President Barack Obama fits the bill. Also in that category is Cory Booker, the U.S. senator from New Jersey. Another would be Pete Buttigieg, the current U.S. transportation secretary and former naval officer who rose to prominence during his campaign for the Democratic nomination in the 2020 presidential election.
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Possible 'swing states' VP candidates for Kamala Harris
Finally, there are options from swing states.
"There's a perception, but not much data to support it, that a vice presidential candidate could help you win in a swing state," Cassino said.
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In that realm, Harris finds several more potential running mates, including the front-runner in Cassino's opinion: North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper. North Carolina's former attorney general, Cooper was elected governor in 2016 and reelected in 2020. Due to state term limits, he is unable to run this year and would be free to take on another role in 2025.
Cassino also mentioned U.S. Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, a former astronaut born in Orange, Stacey Abrams, a former candidate for Georgia governor, and the "very well-liked governor of Pennsylvania," Josh Shapiro. Shapiro beat a Trump-backed candidate in Doug Mastriano in 2022, has bipartisan support and, like Cooper, has executive experience. However, Shapiro recently took office and party bosses may be loathe to remove him, Cassino said.
Notable outliers for Dem VP candidate role
Some other names being mentioned seem to have very slim odds, according to Cassino. California Gov. Gavin Newsome has been positioning himself as an "emergency candidate" to replace Biden, Cassino said. He debated former candidate for the Republican presidential nomination Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis earlier his year. However, due to the vagaries of Electoral College rules, either he or Harris would likely have to move out of California and establish residency in another state to be paired on the same ticket.
Other names that may be eyeing a presidential run and would probably keep themselves out of the running for Harris' potential vice-president are Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, Cassino said.
Recent polls for Kamala Harris VP candidates
A SurveyUSA/FairVote ranked choice poll in early July found initial first-choice votes for Harris' potential running mate were closely divided among likely Democrats and independent voters in six swing states. Of the 2,050 likely voters polled in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 20% picked Buttigieg, 19% selected Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and 14% opted for Shapiro.
Whitmer, who has been discussed as a potential presidential candidate for the Democrats, is another potential option for the swing state strategy, with Michigan expected to be crucial in the path to the presidency. Biden won the state in 2020 but has been trailing Trump in recent polls. The Harris-Whitmer ticket would be the first all-women ticket in history.
Other contenders are Senator Amy Klobuchar, Congressman Jamie Raskin and Pritzker, who each received 5% of the first-choice vote to be paired on the ballot with Harris. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis and Cooper both garnered 3%, while 4% of voters preferred Harris to run with someone else and 19% were unsure.
In a ranked choice poll for a Harris running mate, Buttigieg narrowly beat Whitmer 52% to 48%.
The poll also found Harris was the clear favorite to replace Joe Biden among likely Democrats and independent voters in those same six swing states. Results showed 37% ranked Harris their first choice to replace Biden and 56% ranked her in their top three.
A separate poll conducted this month by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found adults have a more favorable opinion of Harris (43%) than both Biden (38%) and Trump (37%).
Center officials said 70% of the 1,253 adults polled said Biden should drop out of the race and allow his party to select a different candidate, while 57% said Trump should withdraw. Among Republicans, 26% said Trump should withdraw. Meanwhile, 65% of Democrats polled said Biden should drop out.
